It is a good sign that the government is thinking of force reduction in Jammu and Kashmir. Speaking at a university seminar in New Delhi on Friday, Union home secretary G.K. Pillai indicated that the presence of the security forces in the state could be pruned by as much as 25 per cent in the course of the year. It will be erroneous to pit this against the observation of the Chief of Army Staff, Gen. V.K. Singh, on the same day that the Army’s strength in the state was not being reduced. For some years the Army has functioned primarily on the Line of Control, although it is also engaged in counter-terrorism operations away from urban centres and has occasionally been used for a show of strength when the situation threatened to get out of hand in the cities, such as during the prolonged agitation last year when stone-pelters had a field day on account of mishandling of the situation by the state police and paramilitary units. (In the latter role, the Army is deployed elsewhere in the country as well.) Clearly then, the government’s thinking is to cut paramilitary deployment in Kashmir in the main. They are the ones who are in the cities along with the state police. They were inserted in the first place as the local police lacked the numbers, training and equipment to deal with the special situation that foreign-fuelled militancy in Kashmir presents. In many instances it was also seen to lack the leadership. Evidently, some of these deficits have been overcome to an extent, permitting the draw-down of the CRPF that Mr Pillai hinted at. Indeed, during the onslaught of the stone-pelters masterminded by some jihadist elements last year, the state police gave a reasonable account of itself. Its performance might have been even better had the state’s political leadership shown greater astuteness.
In spite of what we saw last year, Kashmir’s populace seeks peace and normality, although from time to time it is bullied into acquiescence by jihadist elements, particularly when the authorities are sloppy or sometimes exceed their limits. Reducing force numbers so that cities don’t always wake up to bunkers of armed men in their midst is always a good idea, and is most often practicable. It is now up to the security forces and intelligence agencies to ensure that the Islamists don’t get the upper hand politically. Force reduction is inevitably a goodwill gesture toward our own people, no matter which part of the country we are talking about. It helps lift the siege mentality. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq has reportedly welcomed the government’s thinking. This will bring him closer to the mainstream in the Valley. Recent statements by former Hurriyat chairman Abdul Ghani Bhatt and by Sajjad Lone, who showed the maturity to chance his arm in the last Lok Sabha elections, that the jihadists have killed more people in Kashmir than the security forces is also in accord with the broad thinking in the Valley. But their public articulation of this sentiment is a forward step and is to be appreciated. Given these developments, reducing the deployment of the paramilitary forces is likely to bolster India’s confidence in any serious talks with Pakistan, whenever these are opened. The announcement of a unilateral six-month multiple-entry visa regime for PoK residents to visit Jammu and Kashmir also appears well-timed to go with the overall thrust of the government’s thinking. The Centre has made a positive appreciation of the work done by the three-person team of interlocutors since October. It may now be time to move up a notch and find ways to resume public contact with political elements in the Valley outside of the parties that contest elections.
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Sunday, January 16, 2011
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
'BrahMos paves way for future Indo-Russian defence JVs'
The success of Indo-Russian JV BrahMos for the development and production of lethal cruise missiles has set a "Golden Standard" for future joint defence projects with greater Indian participation, according to a respected defence publication. "BrahMos has been an unqualified success. The numerous
benefits it has already yielded include: commercial profit for both partners; a tangible improvement in the fighting ability of the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force; development of new technologies, which has been especially important to the Indians; a chance for Russia's NPO Mashinostroyeniya corporation to put its potential for innovation to good use," Moscow Defense Brief (MDB) quarterly writes in its latest issues.
"The BrahMos Aerospace Ltd joint venture has become a vehicle for future implementation of other Russian-Indian projects, on an even large scale and with greater Indian participation," the journal notes in an article contributed by top defence expert Dr Ruslan Pukhov the journal notes.
It underscored that the valuable experience of BrahMos, a fifty-fifty JV between Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia's NPO Mashinostroyeniya, in overcoming various legal, organisational and financial hurdles, will be invaluable during the implementation of other bilateral programmes, including the future joint projects of Multi-role Transport Aircraft (MTA) and fifth generation FGFA fighter.
The company is known to be already working on new hypersonic missile. But the unique experience accumulated as part of the BrahMos programme since 1998 has paved the way for even more ambitious goals, including new strategic ballistic and cruise missiles.
"For India, BrahMos has become one of the first standardised weapons systems which can be deployed by all three armed services - the Army, the Navy and the Air Force," MDB underscores.
It noted that the Indian Navy was the initial customer for the new missile, which can be carried by a variety of naval platforms.
These include the majority of the existing and future surface ships. The first ships to be equipped with BrahMos were Project 61ME (Kashin-Mod class) destroyers.
Two of them, the Ranvir and the Ranvijay, will also be fitted with 8-missile vertical launch systems.
Other ships that will carry BrahMos include three Project 15A (Kolkata class) destroyers now being built in India, the future Project 15B destroyers, future Project 17A frigates and three Project 11356M (Talwar class Batch 2) frigates now being built for India at the Yantar Shipyards in Kaliningrad.
The future Talwar class Batch 3 frigates will also be equipped with the new missile, regardless of where they will be built. In addition to surface ships, the Indian Navy plans to deploy BrahMos on submarines and possibly on land-based patrol aircraft.
The suitable airborne carriers include the Russian Il-38SD ASW aircraft and, in a few years' time, the Boeing P-8I Poseidon ASW aircraft which India has already ordered in the United States.
The Indian Army has bought hundreds BrahMos missiles in the mobile land-based configuration.
They will be used not only against ships but also as a high-precision weapon against land targets such as command posts and key infrastructure facilities (the Block II LACM version).
The Indian Army has ordered 134 mobile anti-ships land-based BrahMos Block I missiles in 2006-2009 and another 240 land-attack BrahMos Block II in 2010, for a total of about 3bn dollars.
Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force is awaiting the completion of the development of an air-launched version of BrahMos, to be deployed primarily with the Su-30MKI fighters.
The Su-30MKI-BrahMos weapons system will be a truly lethal combination. First deliveries are expected in 2012.
At some point the Indian Air Force will also receive the BrahMos Block II version, which is designed to engage land targets.
MDB does not rule out that the 126 medium multirole fighters (MMRCA) for which India has announced a contract will also be fitted with BrahMos missiles.
"Not only the MiG-35 fielded by Russia in the MMRCA tender, but its Western rivals -the F/A-18, Rafale and Typhoon fighters can all serve as carriers of BrahMos Block II missiles," Moscow Defense Brief writes.
The missile's ability to be launched from a wide range of platforms and engage a variety of targets has generated very large sales.
At present the demand of the Indian armed forces is estimated at 1,000 such missiles at the very least.
In fact, the need to fulfil the Indian orders is holding back exports to other countries.
The most conservative estimate for the size of the market for BrahMos throughout the life of the project is 2,000 missiles, worth over USD 10 billion.
"For Russia, the success of BrahMos has improved the chances of winning Indian contracts for aviation and naval platforms.
It is usually the exports of platforms that normally drive the sales of weapons to be fitted onto those platforms.
But in the case of BrahMos, it is the other way around: the missile is driving the sales of aircraft and submarines that can carry it," Dr Pukhov writes in Moscow Defense Brief quarterly.
benefits it has already yielded include: commercial profit for both partners; a tangible improvement in the fighting ability of the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force; development of new technologies, which has been especially important to the Indians; a chance for Russia's NPO Mashinostroyeniya corporation to put its potential for innovation to good use," Moscow Defense Brief (MDB) quarterly writes in its latest issues.
"The BrahMos Aerospace Ltd joint venture has become a vehicle for future implementation of other Russian-Indian projects, on an even large scale and with greater Indian participation," the journal notes in an article contributed by top defence expert Dr Ruslan Pukhov the journal notes.
It underscored that the valuable experience of BrahMos, a fifty-fifty JV between Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia's NPO Mashinostroyeniya, in overcoming various legal, organisational and financial hurdles, will be invaluable during the implementation of other bilateral programmes, including the future joint projects of Multi-role Transport Aircraft (MTA) and fifth generation FGFA fighter.
The company is known to be already working on new hypersonic missile. But the unique experience accumulated as part of the BrahMos programme since 1998 has paved the way for even more ambitious goals, including new strategic ballistic and cruise missiles.
"For India, BrahMos has become one of the first standardised weapons systems which can be deployed by all three armed services - the Army, the Navy and the Air Force," MDB underscores.
It noted that the Indian Navy was the initial customer for the new missile, which can be carried by a variety of naval platforms.
These include the majority of the existing and future surface ships. The first ships to be equipped with BrahMos were Project 61ME (Kashin-Mod class) destroyers.
Two of them, the Ranvir and the Ranvijay, will also be fitted with 8-missile vertical launch systems.
Other ships that will carry BrahMos include three Project 15A (Kolkata class) destroyers now being built in India, the future Project 15B destroyers, future Project 17A frigates and three Project 11356M (Talwar class Batch 2) frigates now being built for India at the Yantar Shipyards in Kaliningrad.
The future Talwar class Batch 3 frigates will also be equipped with the new missile, regardless of where they will be built. In addition to surface ships, the Indian Navy plans to deploy BrahMos on submarines and possibly on land-based patrol aircraft.
The suitable airborne carriers include the Russian Il-38SD ASW aircraft and, in a few years' time, the Boeing P-8I Poseidon ASW aircraft which India has already ordered in the United States.
The Indian Army has bought hundreds BrahMos missiles in the mobile land-based configuration.
They will be used not only against ships but also as a high-precision weapon against land targets such as command posts and key infrastructure facilities (the Block II LACM version).
The Indian Army has ordered 134 mobile anti-ships land-based BrahMos Block I missiles in 2006-2009 and another 240 land-attack BrahMos Block II in 2010, for a total of about 3bn dollars.
Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force is awaiting the completion of the development of an air-launched version of BrahMos, to be deployed primarily with the Su-30MKI fighters.
The Su-30MKI-BrahMos weapons system will be a truly lethal combination. First deliveries are expected in 2012.
At some point the Indian Air Force will also receive the BrahMos Block II version, which is designed to engage land targets.
MDB does not rule out that the 126 medium multirole fighters (MMRCA) for which India has announced a contract will also be fitted with BrahMos missiles.
"Not only the MiG-35 fielded by Russia in the MMRCA tender, but its Western rivals -the F/A-18, Rafale and Typhoon fighters can all serve as carriers of BrahMos Block II missiles," Moscow Defense Brief writes.
The missile's ability to be launched from a wide range of platforms and engage a variety of targets has generated very large sales.
At present the demand of the Indian armed forces is estimated at 1,000 such missiles at the very least.
In fact, the need to fulfil the Indian orders is holding back exports to other countries.
The most conservative estimate for the size of the market for BrahMos throughout the life of the project is 2,000 missiles, worth over USD 10 billion.
"For Russia, the success of BrahMos has improved the chances of winning Indian contracts for aviation and naval platforms.
It is usually the exports of platforms that normally drive the sales of weapons to be fitted onto those platforms.
But in the case of BrahMos, it is the other way around: the missile is driving the sales of aircraft and submarines that can carry it," Dr Pukhov writes in Moscow Defense Brief quarterly.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Educational Reform
The announcement by the HRD Ministry on the possibility of educational institutions incorporating as Corporates under Sec. 25 of the Companies Act , fine as far as it goes sidesteps the issue of financial autonomy and reform for the sector.
To begin with there is nothing which stops any body from setting up a Section 25 company for research and or education. In fact there are instances of profit making research companies. Presumably HRD Ministry announcements will influence the accredition bodies and other regulators.
To what extent they will lower their guards is an open question. In the unlikely event of this announcement succeeding in a big way the existing education bodies will actually be placed under greater handicaps, not having the freedom of operating under the Companies Act.
The reason why educational institutes incorporated under the Societies Registration Act or the as Trusts under the Charities Commissioner, are not allowed to approach financial institutions like banks and term lending institutions for loans is not very clear.
It would make sense for example to stop them from using land given to them by the State as collateral or such other restrictions may be imposed. Also they may be restricted or borrowing from the public sector financial institutions and banks to ensure that the due diligence is carried out. But otherwise there are no obvious reasons for restricting borrowing for viable projects initiated by them.
It is interesting that MHRD has a one size fits all approach for example for deemed universities.It sis true that some institutions of this kind were not good, but many were. In fact in economics the Indira Gandhi Instititute of Development Research or in social work the Tata Institute of Social Sciences are both deemed universities, have a global standing and yet were subjected to the same inspection specially carried out by the UGC at the behest of the Ministry as all other deemed universities.
When a thousand institutions are inspected the quality of inspectors and reports tends to vary. A more selective approach was possible since the Ministry would have their annual reports and audited accounts but was not preferred. This led to adverse court rulings and much confusion amongst students and others.
The least that can be done is to let well managed institutions have greater financial autonomy including for borrowing for viable innovative schemes. It maybe noted that institutions engaged in foreign investment in education in India are not subject to such restrictions in their countries. Also they work in countries with a strong long term lending institutional structure in the private sector. Private sector companies investing in education will also have that freedom.
They will account for less than five percent of the student population. The dead hand of control will stifle the others and make them relatively worse off.
To begin with there is nothing which stops any body from setting up a Section 25 company for research and or education. In fact there are instances of profit making research companies. Presumably HRD Ministry announcements will influence the accredition bodies and other regulators.
To what extent they will lower their guards is an open question. In the unlikely event of this announcement succeeding in a big way the existing education bodies will actually be placed under greater handicaps, not having the freedom of operating under the Companies Act.
The reason why educational institutes incorporated under the Societies Registration Act or the as Trusts under the Charities Commissioner, are not allowed to approach financial institutions like banks and term lending institutions for loans is not very clear.
It would make sense for example to stop them from using land given to them by the State as collateral or such other restrictions may be imposed. Also they may be restricted or borrowing from the public sector financial institutions and banks to ensure that the due diligence is carried out. But otherwise there are no obvious reasons for restricting borrowing for viable projects initiated by them.
It is interesting that MHRD has a one size fits all approach for example for deemed universities.It sis true that some institutions of this kind were not good, but many were. In fact in economics the Indira Gandhi Instititute of Development Research or in social work the Tata Institute of Social Sciences are both deemed universities, have a global standing and yet were subjected to the same inspection specially carried out by the UGC at the behest of the Ministry as all other deemed universities.
When a thousand institutions are inspected the quality of inspectors and reports tends to vary. A more selective approach was possible since the Ministry would have their annual reports and audited accounts but was not preferred. This led to adverse court rulings and much confusion amongst students and others.
The least that can be done is to let well managed institutions have greater financial autonomy including for borrowing for viable innovative schemes. It maybe noted that institutions engaged in foreign investment in education in India are not subject to such restrictions in their countries. Also they work in countries with a strong long term lending institutional structure in the private sector. Private sector companies investing in education will also have that freedom.
They will account for less than five percent of the student population. The dead hand of control will stifle the others and make them relatively worse off.
It’s jobs, not GDP, that concern America
If there’s one piece of economic wisdom I hope people will grasp this year, it’s this: Even though we may finally have stopped digging, we’re still near the bottom of a very deep hole.
Why do I need to point this out? Because I’ve noticed many people overreacting to recent good economic news. What particularly concerns me is the risk of self-denying optimism — that is, I worry that policymakers will look at a few favourable economic indicators, decide that they no longer need to promote recovery, and take steps that send us sliding right back to the bottom.
So, about that good news: various economic indicators, ranging from relatively good holiday sales to new claims for unemployment insurance (which have finally fallen below 4,00,000 a week), suggest that the great post-bubble retrenchment may finally be ending.
We’re not talking Morning in America here. Construction shows no sign of returning to bubble-era levels, nor are there any indications that debt-burdened families are going back to their old habits of spending all they earned. But all we needed for a modest economic rebound was for construction to stop falling and saving to stop rising — and that seems to be happening. Forecasters have been marking up their predictions; growth as high as four per cent this year now looks possible.
Hooray! But then again, not so much. Jobs, not Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, are what matter to American families. And when you start from an unemployment rate of almost 10 per cent, the arithmetic of job creation — the amount of growth you need to get back to a tolerable jobs picture — is daunting.
First of all, we have to grow around 2.5 per cent a year just to keep up with rising productivity and population, and hence keep unemployment from rising. That’s why the past year-and-a-half was technically a recovery but felt like a recession: GDP was growing, but not fast enough to bring unemployment down.
Growth at a rate above 2.5 per cent will bring unemployment down over time. But the gains aren’t one for one: for a variety of reasons, it has historically taken about two extra points of growth over the course of a year to shave one point off the unemployment rate.
Now do the maths. Suppose that the US economy were to grow at four per cent a year, starting now and continuing for the next several years. Most people would regard this as excellent performance, even as an economic boom; it’s certainly higher than almost all the forecasts I’ve seen.
Yet the maths says that even with that kind of growth the unemployment rate would be close to nine per cent at the end of this year, and still above eight per cent at the end of 2012. We wouldn’t get to anything resembling full employment until late in Sarah Palin’s first presidential term.
Seriously, what we’re looking at over the next few years, even with pretty good growth, are unemployment rates that not long ago would have been considered catastrophic — because they are. Behind those dry statistics lies a vast landscape of suffering and broken dreams. And the arithmetic says that the suffering will continue as far as the eye can see.
So what can be done to accelerate this all-too-slow process of healing? A rational political system would long since have created a 21st-century version of the Works Progress Administration — we’d be putting the unemployed to work doing what needs to be done, repairing and improving our fraying infrastructure. In the political system we have, however, Senator-elect Kelly Ayotte, delivering the Republican weekly address on New Year’s day, declared that “Job one is to stop wasteful Washington spending”.
Realistically, the best we can hope for from fiscal policy is that Washington doesn’t actively undermine the recovery. Beware, in particular, the Ides of March: by then, the federal government will probably have hit its debt limit and the Grand Old Party (GOP) will try to force US President Barack Obama into economically harmful spending cuts.
I’m also worried about monetary policy. Two months ago, the Federal Reserve announced a new plan to promote job growth by buying long-term bonds; at the time, many observers believed that the initial $600 billion purchase was only the beginning of the story. But now it looks like the end, partly because Republicans are trying to bully the Fed into pulling back, but also because a run of slightly better economic news provides an excuse to do nothing.
There’s even a significant chance that the Fed will raise interest rates later this year — or at least that’s what the futures market seems to think. Doing so in the face of high unemployment and minimal inflation would be crazy, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
So back to my original point: whatever the recent economic news, we’re still near the bottom of a very deep hole. We can only hope that enough policymakers understand that point.
Why do I need to point this out? Because I’ve noticed many people overreacting to recent good economic news. What particularly concerns me is the risk of self-denying optimism — that is, I worry that policymakers will look at a few favourable economic indicators, decide that they no longer need to promote recovery, and take steps that send us sliding right back to the bottom.
So, about that good news: various economic indicators, ranging from relatively good holiday sales to new claims for unemployment insurance (which have finally fallen below 4,00,000 a week), suggest that the great post-bubble retrenchment may finally be ending.
We’re not talking Morning in America here. Construction shows no sign of returning to bubble-era levels, nor are there any indications that debt-burdened families are going back to their old habits of spending all they earned. But all we needed for a modest economic rebound was for construction to stop falling and saving to stop rising — and that seems to be happening. Forecasters have been marking up their predictions; growth as high as four per cent this year now looks possible.
Hooray! But then again, not so much. Jobs, not Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, are what matter to American families. And when you start from an unemployment rate of almost 10 per cent, the arithmetic of job creation — the amount of growth you need to get back to a tolerable jobs picture — is daunting.
First of all, we have to grow around 2.5 per cent a year just to keep up with rising productivity and population, and hence keep unemployment from rising. That’s why the past year-and-a-half was technically a recovery but felt like a recession: GDP was growing, but not fast enough to bring unemployment down.
Growth at a rate above 2.5 per cent will bring unemployment down over time. But the gains aren’t one for one: for a variety of reasons, it has historically taken about two extra points of growth over the course of a year to shave one point off the unemployment rate.
Now do the maths. Suppose that the US economy were to grow at four per cent a year, starting now and continuing for the next several years. Most people would regard this as excellent performance, even as an economic boom; it’s certainly higher than almost all the forecasts I’ve seen.
Yet the maths says that even with that kind of growth the unemployment rate would be close to nine per cent at the end of this year, and still above eight per cent at the end of 2012. We wouldn’t get to anything resembling full employment until late in Sarah Palin’s first presidential term.
Seriously, what we’re looking at over the next few years, even with pretty good growth, are unemployment rates that not long ago would have been considered catastrophic — because they are. Behind those dry statistics lies a vast landscape of suffering and broken dreams. And the arithmetic says that the suffering will continue as far as the eye can see.
So what can be done to accelerate this all-too-slow process of healing? A rational political system would long since have created a 21st-century version of the Works Progress Administration — we’d be putting the unemployed to work doing what needs to be done, repairing and improving our fraying infrastructure. In the political system we have, however, Senator-elect Kelly Ayotte, delivering the Republican weekly address on New Year’s day, declared that “Job one is to stop wasteful Washington spending”.
Realistically, the best we can hope for from fiscal policy is that Washington doesn’t actively undermine the recovery. Beware, in particular, the Ides of March: by then, the federal government will probably have hit its debt limit and the Grand Old Party (GOP) will try to force US President Barack Obama into economically harmful spending cuts.
I’m also worried about monetary policy. Two months ago, the Federal Reserve announced a new plan to promote job growth by buying long-term bonds; at the time, many observers believed that the initial $600 billion purchase was only the beginning of the story. But now it looks like the end, partly because Republicans are trying to bully the Fed into pulling back, but also because a run of slightly better economic news provides an excuse to do nothing.
There’s even a significant chance that the Fed will raise interest rates later this year — or at least that’s what the futures market seems to think. Doing so in the face of high unemployment and minimal inflation would be crazy, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
So back to my original point: whatever the recent economic news, we’re still near the bottom of a very deep hole. We can only hope that enough policymakers understand that point.
Mali tackles ills — Al-Qaeda and drug trafficking
The tourism minister of Mali, N'Diaye Bah, visibly bristled when asked about the possibility that Al-Qaeda's North African offshoot might kidnap foreigners in fabled Timbuktu or anywhere across Mali's northern desert.
France spread such rumours, he insisted. “They want to create this security issue that does not exist,” he said, wagging his finger. “When you come to Mali, there is no aggression against tourists. How can you say there is insecurity in this country?”
Yet the United States and French Embassies, among other foreign missions, explicitly warn against travelling to Timbuktu and indeed the entire desert that sweeps across roughly two-thirds of this landlocked West African nation. A French Embassy map colours the entire north red, a no-go area.
This uneasy, public standoff has existed for some time, reflective of Mali's insistence that it is not a font of violence like some of its neighbours, notably Algeria. But in a sign that Mali both acknowledges the issue and seeks to address it, the country is rolling out a new development plan, hoping to tackle the problem at its roots.
The problems
The dearth of jobs and prospects in the north helps drive the region's twin ills — narcotics trafficking and Islamic radicalism. By setting up military barracks, infirmaries, schools, shopping areas and animal markets in 11 northern towns, the Malian government hopes to establish a more visible government presence, foster economic activity and form a bulwark against lawlessness.
“The ultimate goal of the project is to eradicate” Al-Qaeda's affiliates in Mali, said Adam Tchiam, a leading Malian columnist.
Mali does not deny that an estimated 200 to 300 fighters from Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (Maghreb being the Arabic term for west) have found a perch in their desert, although most are believed to be Mauritanians and Algerians. But Mali often depicts the terrorists as a problem generated elsewhere.
“We are hostages to a situation that does not concern us,” news reports quoted President Amadou Toumani Touré as saying.
Behind the scenes, however, the President has been more forthcoming. In a meeting with the American Ambassador, Gillian A. Milovanovic, and senior American military officers last year, he said the extremists “have had difficulty getting their message across to a generally reluctant population,” according to an embassy cable obtained by WikiLeaks and made available to several news organisations. Still, Mr. Touré acknowledged, “they have had some success in enlisting disaffected youth to their ranks.”
Trail of violence
In recent years, the Qaeda affiliate has left a trail of violence across Mauritania, Niger, Algeria and Mali, taking aim at tourists, expatriate workers, local residents and security forces. Hostages taken in the porous border regions have been executed or ransomed. Five French and two African workers kidnapped in Niger last September are believed to be held in northern Mali.
The Algerians and some Western diplomats accuse the Malians of being too soft on terrorism, an opinion reflected in the cables obtained by WikiLeaks. But Mali's defenders argue that the regional problem is far larger than any one poor country can address.
To that end, Mauritania recently moved uninvited troops permanently across the border in Mali to eradicate a Qaeda encampment, diplomats said, and Mali did not object.
For his part, President Touré has been trying to forge a regional consensus on the issue, but the leaked cables and diplomats suggest that Algeria has been reluctant to take part. Algerian officials regularly criticise the presence of French and American training forces, saying they constitute another threat.
Mali's own plan faces two main problems, one domestic and one foreign. Tuareg rebels fought the government in the desert for decades, with the 1992 peace treaty specifying that the government forces completely withdraw from the north. Deploying them there risks reigniting a conflict that still simmers.
Even so, some northerners endorse almost any government action in the harsh environment, where battling sand alone constitutes a daily struggle.
“There are villages that have never seen an administrator, never seen a nurse, never seen a teacher,” said Amboudi Side Ahmed, a businessman in the capital, Bamako, who was raised in the north. “You could stay in a village up there for 10 years and never see a government official.”
Then there is the question of whether these northern hubs are even feasible, given the reluctance of foreign aid workers to venture north and finance projects there. “The President says the poor protect Al-Qaeda because they do not have any means,” said Mr. Tchiam, the columnist. “Where are the means?”
While foreign governments recognise that the north needs development, the lack of security hampers it. American Embassy personnel, for example, can travel north only with express permission of the ambassador, which she said she rarely granted.
‘Development is criticial'
“Development is critical in dealing with the north,” Ambassador Milovanovic said, but “so long as security is unstable, it is hard to get those projects going.”
“We cannot just throw money up there.”
After her own visits, she has tried to meet local requests by offering training for midwives or supplying four-wheel-drive ambulances. As part of its broader efforts to counter extremism in northern Mali, the United States also underwrote a series of radio soap operas whose plot twists emphasised the dangers of extremism.
Beyond that, Washington provides basic military training, sometimes even more basic than envisioned. An exercise on what to do when the driver of a vehicle is shot dead revealed a startling truth — most Malian soldiers did not know how to drive. Lessons were instituted. But Malian officials want more.
Terror operations
“How many people in the north listen to the radio? That is never going to be strong enough to change their views on A.Q.M.I. or religious fundamentalism,” said Mohamed Baby, a presidential adviser working on fixing the northern problem, using the initials of the French name for Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. “We need to deal with development, with the lack of resources.”
Qaeda fighters have sometimes ingratiated themselves by paying inflated prices for food, fuel and other goods. Diplomats believe that the extremists have also informed local smugglers that they will pay a premium for kidnapped Westerners.
Aside from collecting ransoms for hostages, Al-Qaeda is believed to be financing its operations by exacting tolls from drug smugglers and traffickers in arms, humans and illicit goods. Since at least the 10th century, Timbuktu has been a crossroads for trade routes across the Sahara, and the modern age is no different.
A series of drug-laden planes make the loop from South America to the Sahel, but numbers are elusive, said Alexandre Schmidt of the United Nations drug office. In one notorious 2009 episode, a Boeing 727 believed to have ferried cocaine from Latin America was set on fire after it got stuck in the sand.
Both the drug smugglers and Al-Qaeda offer young men a quick route to money and symbols of prestige like a pickup truck. The government plan has no easy, short-term ways to compete, officials concede.
“They can recruit young people and undermine both the economy and the religion,” Mr. Baby said of the militants. “We have to build up some kind of resistance.”
France spread such rumours, he insisted. “They want to create this security issue that does not exist,” he said, wagging his finger. “When you come to Mali, there is no aggression against tourists. How can you say there is insecurity in this country?”
Yet the United States and French Embassies, among other foreign missions, explicitly warn against travelling to Timbuktu and indeed the entire desert that sweeps across roughly two-thirds of this landlocked West African nation. A French Embassy map colours the entire north red, a no-go area.
This uneasy, public standoff has existed for some time, reflective of Mali's insistence that it is not a font of violence like some of its neighbours, notably Algeria. But in a sign that Mali both acknowledges the issue and seeks to address it, the country is rolling out a new development plan, hoping to tackle the problem at its roots.
The problems
The dearth of jobs and prospects in the north helps drive the region's twin ills — narcotics trafficking and Islamic radicalism. By setting up military barracks, infirmaries, schools, shopping areas and animal markets in 11 northern towns, the Malian government hopes to establish a more visible government presence, foster economic activity and form a bulwark against lawlessness.
“The ultimate goal of the project is to eradicate” Al-Qaeda's affiliates in Mali, said Adam Tchiam, a leading Malian columnist.
Mali does not deny that an estimated 200 to 300 fighters from Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (Maghreb being the Arabic term for west) have found a perch in their desert, although most are believed to be Mauritanians and Algerians. But Mali often depicts the terrorists as a problem generated elsewhere.
“We are hostages to a situation that does not concern us,” news reports quoted President Amadou Toumani Touré as saying.
Behind the scenes, however, the President has been more forthcoming. In a meeting with the American Ambassador, Gillian A. Milovanovic, and senior American military officers last year, he said the extremists “have had difficulty getting their message across to a generally reluctant population,” according to an embassy cable obtained by WikiLeaks and made available to several news organisations. Still, Mr. Touré acknowledged, “they have had some success in enlisting disaffected youth to their ranks.”
Trail of violence
In recent years, the Qaeda affiliate has left a trail of violence across Mauritania, Niger, Algeria and Mali, taking aim at tourists, expatriate workers, local residents and security forces. Hostages taken in the porous border regions have been executed or ransomed. Five French and two African workers kidnapped in Niger last September are believed to be held in northern Mali.
The Algerians and some Western diplomats accuse the Malians of being too soft on terrorism, an opinion reflected in the cables obtained by WikiLeaks. But Mali's defenders argue that the regional problem is far larger than any one poor country can address.
To that end, Mauritania recently moved uninvited troops permanently across the border in Mali to eradicate a Qaeda encampment, diplomats said, and Mali did not object.
For his part, President Touré has been trying to forge a regional consensus on the issue, but the leaked cables and diplomats suggest that Algeria has been reluctant to take part. Algerian officials regularly criticise the presence of French and American training forces, saying they constitute another threat.
Mali's own plan faces two main problems, one domestic and one foreign. Tuareg rebels fought the government in the desert for decades, with the 1992 peace treaty specifying that the government forces completely withdraw from the north. Deploying them there risks reigniting a conflict that still simmers.
Even so, some northerners endorse almost any government action in the harsh environment, where battling sand alone constitutes a daily struggle.
“There are villages that have never seen an administrator, never seen a nurse, never seen a teacher,” said Amboudi Side Ahmed, a businessman in the capital, Bamako, who was raised in the north. “You could stay in a village up there for 10 years and never see a government official.”
Then there is the question of whether these northern hubs are even feasible, given the reluctance of foreign aid workers to venture north and finance projects there. “The President says the poor protect Al-Qaeda because they do not have any means,” said Mr. Tchiam, the columnist. “Where are the means?”
While foreign governments recognise that the north needs development, the lack of security hampers it. American Embassy personnel, for example, can travel north only with express permission of the ambassador, which she said she rarely granted.
‘Development is criticial'
“Development is critical in dealing with the north,” Ambassador Milovanovic said, but “so long as security is unstable, it is hard to get those projects going.”
“We cannot just throw money up there.”
After her own visits, she has tried to meet local requests by offering training for midwives or supplying four-wheel-drive ambulances. As part of its broader efforts to counter extremism in northern Mali, the United States also underwrote a series of radio soap operas whose plot twists emphasised the dangers of extremism.
Beyond that, Washington provides basic military training, sometimes even more basic than envisioned. An exercise on what to do when the driver of a vehicle is shot dead revealed a startling truth — most Malian soldiers did not know how to drive. Lessons were instituted. But Malian officials want more.
Terror operations
“How many people in the north listen to the radio? That is never going to be strong enough to change their views on A.Q.M.I. or religious fundamentalism,” said Mohamed Baby, a presidential adviser working on fixing the northern problem, using the initials of the French name for Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. “We need to deal with development, with the lack of resources.”
Qaeda fighters have sometimes ingratiated themselves by paying inflated prices for food, fuel and other goods. Diplomats believe that the extremists have also informed local smugglers that they will pay a premium for kidnapped Westerners.
Aside from collecting ransoms for hostages, Al-Qaeda is believed to be financing its operations by exacting tolls from drug smugglers and traffickers in arms, humans and illicit goods. Since at least the 10th century, Timbuktu has been a crossroads for trade routes across the Sahara, and the modern age is no different.
A series of drug-laden planes make the loop from South America to the Sahel, but numbers are elusive, said Alexandre Schmidt of the United Nations drug office. In one notorious 2009 episode, a Boeing 727 believed to have ferried cocaine from Latin America was set on fire after it got stuck in the sand.
Both the drug smugglers and Al-Qaeda offer young men a quick route to money and symbols of prestige like a pickup truck. The government plan has no easy, short-term ways to compete, officials concede.
“They can recruit young people and undermine both the economy and the religion,” Mr. Baby said of the militants. “We have to build up some kind of resistance.”
What we need is a 365-day government
Indians love holidays. Secularism may be under threat, but not in respect of religious holidays. I have never heard people complain about holidays for the festivals of their co-religionists. In addition, an occasional bonanza comes in the shape of holidays to mourn the deaths of VIPs, local religious festivals, forced closures during hartals, etc. In Kerala, liquor sales shoot up on the eve of holidays. Since the government is the monopoly vendor of liquor, it is the biggest beneficiary of holidays as its coffers get filled up.
We love official policies — tomes of verbose and jargonistic government literature. But we have no holiday policy. Many commissions and committees have suggested reforms to prevent long shutdowns of the government machinery. But certain things never seem to change. It appears nobody has the guts to take on unionised bureaucracy. Status quo is the preferred option. For the politician, giving offence to anybody would mean less number of votes during elections.
So government offices are shut down continuously for four days for Onam in Kerala, for Pongal in Tamil Nadu, for Puja in West Bengal. Is it not time to rethink on this wasteful closure of the governmental system that denies basic services to the citizens, especially to the poor? Why should courts have holidays when crores of cases are pending disposal?
I am not advocating that people should be denied holidays to celebrate festivals. I don't want to enter into a statistical debate about the number of holidays. But when we envisage a greater role for the government in social and economic development of the nation, the services of the government should be available in an uninterrupted manner.
The government is already doing it in respect of essential services such as hospitals, electricity, water, railways, road, shipping and air transport. Are not the administrative wings of the government also essential in the sense that they deliver vital services?
Is it so complicated that a suitable mechanism cannot be evolved to provide at least skeleton services on holidays? What is lacking is the willingness to change and adapt to the growing expectations of the people for speedier services.
There will be practical difficulties in the beginning as is the case with any kind of reform. But these problems can be surmounted over a period of time. I am sure many employees will be willing to work on holidays provided they are compensated either monetarily or by other incentives. I know many government employees are committed to helping the public in letter and in spirit.
A governmental system that works on all days will help to improve the work culture of the employees and transform governance into a people friendly exercise. People's trust in their government will be enhanced and the politicians will be the ultimate beneficiaries during elections. But, our leaders should lead the way by setting an example of hard work. Frequent disruptions of Parliament and legislatures send a wrong signal to the people.
We love official policies — tomes of verbose and jargonistic government literature. But we have no holiday policy. Many commissions and committees have suggested reforms to prevent long shutdowns of the government machinery. But certain things never seem to change. It appears nobody has the guts to take on unionised bureaucracy. Status quo is the preferred option. For the politician, giving offence to anybody would mean less number of votes during elections.
So government offices are shut down continuously for four days for Onam in Kerala, for Pongal in Tamil Nadu, for Puja in West Bengal. Is it not time to rethink on this wasteful closure of the governmental system that denies basic services to the citizens, especially to the poor? Why should courts have holidays when crores of cases are pending disposal?
I am not advocating that people should be denied holidays to celebrate festivals. I don't want to enter into a statistical debate about the number of holidays. But when we envisage a greater role for the government in social and economic development of the nation, the services of the government should be available in an uninterrupted manner.
The government is already doing it in respect of essential services such as hospitals, electricity, water, railways, road, shipping and air transport. Are not the administrative wings of the government also essential in the sense that they deliver vital services?
Is it so complicated that a suitable mechanism cannot be evolved to provide at least skeleton services on holidays? What is lacking is the willingness to change and adapt to the growing expectations of the people for speedier services.
There will be practical difficulties in the beginning as is the case with any kind of reform. But these problems can be surmounted over a period of time. I am sure many employees will be willing to work on holidays provided they are compensated either monetarily or by other incentives. I know many government employees are committed to helping the public in letter and in spirit.
A governmental system that works on all days will help to improve the work culture of the employees and transform governance into a people friendly exercise. People's trust in their government will be enhanced and the politicians will be the ultimate beneficiaries during elections. But, our leaders should lead the way by setting an example of hard work. Frequent disruptions of Parliament and legislatures send a wrong signal to the people.
Sudan on the brink
Sudan, Africa's largest country, the world's tenth largest and one of its poorest, faces partition in a referendum scheduled for January 9. The country is already effectively divided. Seventy per cent of the 43-million population are Sunnis and largely occupy the north; in the south, most are animists and about five per cent belong to various Christian sects. The two regions have maintained an uneasy truce since a 2005 agreement ended a savage 22-year civil war in which an estimated two million were killed and four million displaced. The six-year conflict in Darfur still causes echoes: President Omar al-Bashir is the only serving head of state indicted for genocide. Furthermore, fearing post-referendum violence, about 75,000 of the 1.5 million southerners who fled the civil war have returned south by road and in barge-convoys along the White Nile. Increasingly confrontational statements have come from the national capital Khartoum and the southern regional capital Juba. The U.N.-backed Satellite Sentinel Project, which is intended to reduce the risk of genocide by providing independent surveillance and rapid reportage, says both sides are massing troops on the north-south border.
There are other reasons why the referendum could be a tragedy in the making. The al-Bashir government insists on a 60 per cent turnout, an excessive requirement in an enormous country with a wretched transport infrastructure and an inefficient administration. Even the electoral register is a bone of contention; in the oil-rich border province of Abyei, Khartoum wants the nomadic Misseriya tribe registered, though they spend only the dry season there. Juba wants the resident population registered. Abyei is also to have a separate and simultaneous referendum on whether to retain its special administrative status in the north or join southern Sudan. Secondly, neighbouring states have an interest in the outcome of the national referendum. Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda will want deals with Juba over Nile water. Other foreign powers have their own stake, particularly in southern oil reserves and farmland. WikiLeaks cables confirm U.S. acceptance of Kenyan participation in supplying Ukrainian tanks to southern forces. Almost farcically, that matter came to light when Somali pirates hijacked a ship carrying the tanks to Kenya; the cables also show that the U.S. tried to deny all knowledge of the shipment. As so often, Sudan's tragedies are exacerbated by the colonial legacy — Sudan itself is a 19th-century British creation — and continuing great-power interference. After all that they have suffered, the people of Sudan deserve better from their own leaders and the rest of the world.
There are other reasons why the referendum could be a tragedy in the making. The al-Bashir government insists on a 60 per cent turnout, an excessive requirement in an enormous country with a wretched transport infrastructure and an inefficient administration. Even the electoral register is a bone of contention; in the oil-rich border province of Abyei, Khartoum wants the nomadic Misseriya tribe registered, though they spend only the dry season there. Juba wants the resident population registered. Abyei is also to have a separate and simultaneous referendum on whether to retain its special administrative status in the north or join southern Sudan. Secondly, neighbouring states have an interest in the outcome of the national referendum. Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda will want deals with Juba over Nile water. Other foreign powers have their own stake, particularly in southern oil reserves and farmland. WikiLeaks cables confirm U.S. acceptance of Kenyan participation in supplying Ukrainian tanks to southern forces. Almost farcically, that matter came to light when Somali pirates hijacked a ship carrying the tanks to Kenya; the cables also show that the U.S. tried to deny all knowledge of the shipment. As so often, Sudan's tragedies are exacerbated by the colonial legacy — Sudan itself is a 19th-century British creation — and continuing great-power interference. After all that they have suffered, the people of Sudan deserve better from their own leaders and the rest of the world.
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